The strategic initative to responed to new challenges for fuel supply and infrastructure protection on NATO'S Eastern Flank

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and its aftermaths (including sanctions on Russian Federation) lead to a deeper reflection on the state of Central Eastern Europe’s (CEE) security. In case of a hostile attack in the Baltic or Black Sea regions, the Alliance would need to quickly deploy its rapid-responder units like NATO’s Very High Readiness Task Force (VJTF), and the rest of the NATO Response Force (NRF). These first-to- deploy combat units would significantly increase the demand for regional fuel supplies as well as require an extensive distribution infrastructure, including airports, sea terminals, and railroad networks.

It seems that the fuel supply system on the Eastern Flank may not be well prepared for the conflict. Due to NATO’s enlargement to the east, a significant part of the post-Soviet oil transmission system has appeared to be located within the Alliance boundaries. Furthermore, Central European refineries are dependent on the Russian Druzhba pipeline system or rely on import terminals (vulnerable to sabotage).

The NATO Pipeline System has not been extended to cover Baltic and Black Sea region allies (not even to the eastern part of Germany). During the conflict, a more or less severe fuel crisis will occur in the Central Eastern Europe region. Therefore, supplying large amounts of fuel during the conflict on the Eastern Flank may pose a challenge. In addition, Ukraine's fuel infrastructure will require major reconstruction as part of the country’s reconstruction, which may be combined with EU plans to develop regional transportation infrastructure and NATO needs. This would allow efficient use of financial funds.

That is crucial to coordinate current and planned investments in the fuel infrastructure within the joint strategy, so the fuel will indeed be delivered to the NATO forces in case of war. This, however, might be challenging in terms of the EU’s Green Deal and decarbonization push on the continent. A possible enhancement is to modify EU funds rules and/or use external funds (e.g. USA – DFC, 3 Sea Initiative). It should also be easier to enhance NATO’s military mobility if the investments will correspond with Ukraine’s recovery/reconstruction. Furthermore, it should be important to possibly reduce the environmental impact of future projects (these should be used e.g. to handle or produce decarbonized fuels too).

To create an alignment EFI together with Сentre for Global Studies Strategy XXI, created this strategic initative. Our idea is to combine the expertise of civilian experts on the energy sector and military experts familiar with the realities of military mobility by means of a series of working panel discussion. This will allow the creation of recommendations to match civilian infrastructure changes on the Eastern Flank with needs of military mobility as well directions of regional and Ukrainian infrastructure reconstruction aimed at supply of Ukrainian fuel market.